I haven't done a blog post in awhile but after a lengthy and somewhat heated discussion about UFC 116 with a friend last night, I thought it appropriate to return to blogging with a preview of what to expect for UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin.
The best course of action to predicting an outcome is to first remove the variables that are least likely to impact that outcome. In this instance that means removing the possibility of a decision. I can guarantee with 99.9995% probability that this fight ends without going to the judges. I see no way it even gets to the fifth round. If you can find someone to let you bet against a decision on this fight, take it. I don't care if you have to lay $1000 to win $100, it a LOCK.
So, now that we know this fight WON'T go to the judges, what ARE the likely outcomes? Well, let's determine the probable length of the fight first. We all know Shane Carwin has not been out of the first round and has finished all of his 12 opponents. Okay, first round stoppage seems highly likely. Brock has made it out of the first round in three of his five fights, one being a three round decision victory (over Heath Herring). Since only one of the 17 fights these two have been involved in has gone to the third round, I find it highly doubtful this fight would make it that far either. I'll go slightly over the straight math and say 7% chance. Okay, we have a 93% chance that this fight ends in the first two rounds. So, how's it going to happen?
Carwin has seven finishes by way of knockout or TKO but he has two submissions due to strikes. I find it very unlikely Lesnar would submit to strikes and, since those fights were in smaller promotions, I think it is likely those fights may have been stopped by better referees resulting in a TKO. So we'll go with nine KO/TKO's for Carwin. Lesnar has two TKO's in his five fights giving us 11 in 17 fights between these two. Straight math would give us a 65% chance of KO/TKO. However, both fighters like to punch. Carwin has admitted his passion is stand up and Brock is a great wrestler which he uses to set up a vicious ground-and-pound game. I also don't think Carwin or Lesnar want to win by submission unless in a precarious spot on the ground and a blatant opportunity presents itself. So, I will say 93% probable this fight ends in a KO or TKO.
Now we know this fight is likely to end in the first or second round by KO or TKO, so who wins?
The logical way to determine would be to compare records versus common opponents. However, Lesnar and Carwin only share Frank Mir as an opponent and each defeated him rather convincingly, so that's pretty much a wash. Okay, how about quality of competition? Well, Lesnar has definitely faced the tougher opponents with five-time champion Randy Couture on his resume as well as Mir and long time UFC/Pride veteran Heath Herring. Carwin has beaten Mir and former top contender Gabriel Gonzaga but that's about it. Lesnar definitely gets the edge in quality of competition. So, we'll see a Lesnar KO/TKO win in either the first or second round, right? Maybe not.
The unknown variable here is how Lesnar responds to his comeback from diverticulitis and subsequent weight loss as well as the "ring rust" from not having fought in just under a year. We just don't know how he has been affected by that. So, this is how I see this fight from a betting perspective...
Lesnar, with a slightly better pedigree from wrestling (NCAA Division I champion in 2000 compared to Carwin's 1999 Division II national championship), having faced a slightly tougher set of opponents and having been in the spotlight many times before (headlined UFC 100 vs. Mir and also wrestled in huge arenas for WWE), I think the true line should be Lesnar -150, Carwin +125. However, since Lesnar has not fought in a year and had the health issues and had to regain a lot of his size and strength, I think it should be adjusted down to -125/+110. Lesnar is likely still an elite athlete and had the better credentials coming in AND he's still the champion.
So, how do you bet? Well, many of the books out there have the line anywhere from -130 to -200 for Lesnar and +100 to +160 for Carwin. I don't think you will be able to find a book to give you better than -125 on Lesnar (although you might find a buddy to bet you heads up which is probably a good bet) so that makes betting on Carwin your only logical bet. With that being said, I think +110 is a push (as that is my "true" line) so only bet Carwin if you can get +115 or better. Sportsbook and Bodog have Carwin at +160 and +155 so I would say those are pretty safe bets. Remember though, you're not betting on Carwin because he's for sure going to win, you're betting on him because he gives you the best value and if he and Lesnar were to fight 100 times with these odds, you'd make money.
As for my personal, non scientific opinion of the fight? I think Carwin is going to win by KO/TKO. Lesnar's chin has not been tested and he has not fought in a year. I think its going to be an exciting fight and will be memorable but it could also be the most exciting 90 second fight we've ever seen. Unless Lesnar can get Carwin to the mat and keep him there (which I don't think he can consistently) he is going to have to stand and bang with Shane. I think Carwin holds the edge in striking and has slightly more KO power and that will lead to a stunning and spectacular finish in one of the biggest (figuratively and literally) fights in MMA history.
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