This year I sat down and crunched numbers and fiddled with a spreadsheet to try and find a method of predicting performance for the season. This info I planned to use to develop my Top 24 for each position so that I can pre-rank my players and develop a draft strategy.
After several hours of trying out formulas and testing and substituting, I came up with a method I was satisfied with. I started out with the quarterbacks and will release my projections for each position (QB, RB, WR, TE and DEF) over the next several days. At the end, I will rank the Top 50 players by their projections.
Some things to keep in mind:
- These projections are statistically based off of last season's performances and this season's opponents. They do not account for injury history or players added to or lost from that team or their opponents. I did this because I wanted a straight projection based on raw data. The effect of new players can be huge or minimal. Losing players at other positions or players added or subtracted to opponents can all affect the stats and performances. Nagging injuries, weather and personal issues can all affect these stats as well. These are impossible to predict. So I went with raw data and then used the subjective data to alter where I ranked the players overall.
- Player rankings are primarily based off of the statistical projections. Some rankings are adjusted to account for a key player that has been added or subtracted but, for the most part, are based off of the statistical projection.
- The data and formula used are not being released. What I will reveal is that the projections are statistically based off of the 2009 season, the opponents played and the opponents on the schedule for the 2010 season. Most analysis I see uses three year averages or weighted statistics or complicated statistical projections trying to factor in new players. However, not always is the quality of the opponent factored in. I feel this is key to figuring out past success or failure and predicting that in the future.
- Rookies are not included in these projections or rankings. I have been cursed by the rookie bug before, most recently last season, and tried to grab the breakout player that would propel my team to victory. What I got was a bunch of inconsistent rookies that propelled my team into mediocrity. I firmly believe in the "sure thing". I believe taking the player, especially in the earlier rounds, that has the largest body of work for predicting future success, is the key to winning. Leave picking rookies to the other guys. They may hit on one but hopefully we will hit on many. Plus, you can usually find as many gems in the free agent pool during the season as you will in the draft. Use your pics on known commodities.
- I have not had my fantasy draft this year. I am releasing this data knowing full well several of the players in my league will have access to it. Fortunately, there are many publications and websites offering projections and rankings. I fully expect most people to shrug off my projections and rankings. My hope, though, is that a few players, and myself, will use these rankings to experience great success in their league. After the season, I will go back and see how accurate my projections were and adjust as needed for the following season. I expect these to evolve and become one of the more accurate fantasy predictors around.
- The projections and rankings are only a guide and cannot and will not guarantee a certain level of success in your league. There are many variables which can affect the success of a fantasy team. These can include strange happenings in the draft, like runs on players, injuries, demotions, firings, trades, and breakouts by unsuspecting players. I have read many times that the draft is only 70% of the success of a fantasy team. The other 30% accounts for free agent pickups and lineup substitutions. The idea here is to give you the best chance of maximizing that first 70%.
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